The RE Reality Zone is a weekly 3-minute read that cuts through real estate noise and gives you the data that matters to make money - no hype, just the critical information to make good real estate investment decisions.

30-Second Summary

Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving.

The RE market remains slow, big surprise. Buying activity is stable and normal for this time of year, as is listing activity. Inventory of houses for sale is down, and will slowly decline the rest of the year. (seasonal norms)

Interest rates are stable in the 6.3 range as well. Likely another rate cut coming in Dec of this year.

The RE market has essentially stabilized from the pandemic and post pandemic rate change.

We need more houses via relaxed construction fees by localities.

Make your purchase and sale decisions based on the fact that sales pace and average list price usually declines from here.

Precision Market Tracker (HousingAlerts)

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Key Stats

(from our friends at Housingwire, Jason Hartman, and others)

Last week’s SFH Inventory on Market: 839,506
This week’s SFH Inventory on Market: 830,445

Pending Sales – 73,223 (2.1% lower than same week last year)
New listings – 75,794 (2% higher than same week last year)

This week’s price reductions are Higher than last year at 41.2% (normal is 30-35%).
(A leading indicator of buyer demand strength, and home price direction)

September’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: $415,200
October’s on-market SFH Median Home Price: $412,300 (2.06% higher than same month last year)

Last week’s Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $429,900
This Week’s Median Price of Homes in Contracts: $427,900

Housing Vacancy Rate: 7.0% – very low (quarterly)

National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2025 were 7.0 percent for rental housing and 1.1 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate decreased from 1.41 percent over the first quarter of 2025 and was slightly higher than in the second quarter of 2024 (6.06 percent). Source

Policy Watch

Big picture items that may affect Real Estate:

• Fed signals potential rate drop in next meeting.

   

• I hope to provide you with the commonly referenced, applicable financial data to see for yourself what effect government economic policy has on jobs, incomes, debt positions, and affordability for Americans, regardless of party.

• *** The jobs report is important. Please know when the gov puts out a report like "jobs", there is a revision done a month or so later, when they crunch the actual numbers. The press rarely reports the revisions, but that is the most accurate. I advise you to put less emphasis on the initial reports and look at the later revised reports for a more accurate view. They indicate part-time, full-time, native born and foreign-born, private sector and public sector job, those are categories that matter.

• We favor non-discriminatory hiring practices that allow anyone’s (any race, color, or creed) chance of proving their worth in a competitive job market.

• LATEST ANALYSIS OF SEPTEMBER JOBS REVISION

  • Full-time vs part-time surged (finally)

  • While total jobs are flat, the composition of who is getting them, and the part-time vs full-time ratio, has been a monumental shift.

• LATEST ANALYSIS OF OCTOBER LABOR MARKET

  • Wages are stable, with only growth being among women of all ages

• The US owes 36 Trillion dollars in national debt, please hold our leaders accountable to reduce that number and be fiscally responsible. Yes, it means tough discussions on what should be cut. This high debt means interest rates have to be higher to sell the treasuries to other countries. Ideally the Fed can lower rates, you can see in the news there is a spat with Fed chair and Trump admin. The rates right now are costing America 100s of Billions in interest.

• The BRICS nations are going to have a hard time coming off the Dollar as the U.S. actions being taken to curb spending kick in to increase stability. They’re going to try, but the consensus is odds are low.

• Please say NO to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in any form (i.e., Fedcoin).

• Passive income from RE is a shield for most of this, whereas "flipping" and wholesaling can stop at any time.

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Mortgage Applications & Rates

Why it matters: The current market relies HEAVILY on the CHANGE in mortgage rates.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage eased to 6.23% as of November 26th, 2025, according to a survey of lenders by mortgage giant Freddie Mac.…..source: Trading Economics

The volume of mortgage applications in the US inched higher by 0.2% from the previous week in the period ending November 26th, mostly holding the 5.2% decline from the earlier period, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association...…….source: Trading Economics

Delinquency & Foreclosures

(Monthly as of October 2025)

Why it matters: Delinquency is the leading indicator of borrower stress. (It will lag behind a few weeks before the data is reported)

ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments to 3.5-Year High

• Delinquencies improved: The national delinquency rate fell by 7 basis points (bps) in October to 3.34%. This is down 11 bps from the same time last year and 53 bps below the October 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark.

• Broad strength in delinquency rates: Performance improved across the board, with both early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90+ day) delinquencies declining during the month.

• Prepayments reached a multi-year high: The single month mortality (SMM) rate, which tracks prepayments, rose by 27 bps in October to 1.01%. This marks the highest level in 3.5 years and an increase of 16 bps from last year when interest rates were at similar levels.

• Foreclosure activity trending upward: Although October foreclosure starts slowed by 9.8% from the prior month, the overall trend continues to rise. Foreclosure inventory is up by 37,000 (+19%) year over year, and foreclosure sales have increased by 1,900 (+32%) from last year's levels. IT IS MAKING IT’S WAY BACK TO PRE 2020 NORMS

• Government loans driving foreclosure growth: While foreclosure activity remains muted by historical standards, the number of loans in active foreclosure hit its highest level since early 2023, driven by a notable rise in FHA foreclosures (+50% YoY) along with a resumption of VA activity following last year's moratorium.

  https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports/first-look-at-october-2025-mortgage-data

Find additional supporting data on our website

We appreciate you and will succeed together!

Corey & Team
Fidelis Wealth Builders

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